Hot streak! Inferences and predictions about goal adherence
Date
2023-10-03
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
Abstract
When do people make optimistic forecasts about goal adherence? Nine preregistered studies find that a recent streak of goal-consistent behavior increases the predicted likelihood that the individual will persist, compared to various other patterns holding the rate of goal adherence constant. This effect is due to perceiving a higher level of commitment following a streak. Accordingly, the effect is larger when the behavior requires commitment to stick with it, compared to when the same behavior is enjoyable in its own right. Furthermore, the effect is weaker in the presence of another diagnostic cue of commitment: when the individual has a high historic rate of goal adherence. People also behave strategically in ways consistent with these inferences (e.g., are less likely to adopt costly goal support tools following a streak, choose partners with recent streaks for joint goal pursuit). Together, these results demonstrate the significance of streaky behavior for forecasting goal adherence.
Description
This article was originally published in Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. The version of record is available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2023.104281. This article will be embargoed until 10/03/2026. © 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. his research was featured in UDaily on 3/7/2024 available at: https://www.udel.edu/udaily/2024/march/power-of-streaks-motivation-jackie-silverman/
Keywords
streaks, inferences, prediction, goal pursuit, behavioral tracking, patterns, open science
Citation
Silverman, Jackie, Alixandra P. Barasch, and Deborah A. Small. “Hot Streak! Inferences and Predictions about Goal Adherence.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 179 (November 2023): 104281. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2023.104281.