The social cost of carbon dioxide under climate-economy feedbacks and temperature variability

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Author(s)Kikstra, Jarmo S.
Author(s)Waidelich, Paul
Author(s)Rising, James
Author(s)Yumashev, Dmitry
Author(s)Hope, Chris
Author(s)Brierley, Chris M.
Date Accessioned2023-12-07T17:52:06Z
Date Available2023-12-07T17:52:06Z
Publication Date2021-09-06
DescriptionThis article was originally published in Environmental Research Letters. The version of record is available at: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1d0b. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd
AbstractA key statistic describing climate change impacts is the 'social cost of carbon dioxide' (SCCO2), the projected cost to society of releasing an additional tonne of CO2. Cost-benefit integrated assessment models that estimate the SCCO2 lack robust representations of climate feedbacks, economy feedbacks, and climate extremes. We compare the PAGE-ICE model with the decade older PAGE09 and find that PAGE-ICE yields SCCO2 values about two times higher, because of its climate and economic updates. Climate feedbacks only account for a relatively minor increase compared to other updates. Extending PAGE-ICE with economy feedbacks demonstrates a manifold increase in the SCCO2 resulting from an empirically derived estimate of partially persistent economic damages. Both the economy feedbacks and other increases since PAGE09 are almost entirely due to higher damages in the Global South. Including an estimate of interannual temperature variability increases the width of the SCCO2 distribution, with particularly strong effects in the tails and a slight increase in the mean SCCO2. Our results highlight the large impacts of climate change if future adaptation does not exceed historical trends. Robust quantification of climate-economy feedbacks and climate extremes are demonstrated to be essential for estimating the SCCO2 and its uncertainty.
SponsorSupported by the H2020-MSCA-RISE project GEMCLIME-2020 GA No. 681228. This work has been supported by the Natural Environment Research Council under Grant Agreement NE/S007415/1. J S K acknowledges support from stichting dr Hendrik Muller's Vaderlandsch Fonds and Meindert Douma Leen. The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of NERA Economic Consulting.
CitationKikstra, Jarmo S, Paul Waidelich, James Rising, Dmitry Yumashev, Chris Hope, and Chris M Brierley. “The Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide under Climate-Economy Feedbacks and Temperature Variability.” Environmental Research Letters 16, no. 9 (September 1, 2021): 094037. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1d0b.
ISSN1748-9326
URLhttps://udspace.udel.edu/handle/19716/33662
Languageen_US
PublisherEnvironmental Research Letters
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Keywordsclimate change
Keywordscost–benefit analysis
Keywordstemperature variability
Keywordsdamage persistence
Keywordsgrowth effects
KeywordsPAGE
Keywordsenvironmental economics
Keywordsclimate action
TitleThe social cost of carbon dioxide under climate-economy feedbacks and temperature variability
TypeArticle
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