An Empirical Investigation of Rumoring: Anticipating Disaster Under Conditions of Uncertainty

Abstract

Although a great deal of attention has been given to the conditions which give rise to rumors, the conditions necessary for transmission, and processes of rumor transmission, little attention has been paid to the factors that distinguish between rumorers and non-rumorers, as well as rumor believers and non-believers. Employing data from a survey of Los Angeles residents following a widely-felt, but non-damaging earthquake that occurred during a heightened period of public attention to earthquake prediction, this analysis focuses on the linkages between a number of social and contextual factors to identify rumorers and rumor believers.