Candidate Preference, State Context, and Voter Turnout: Comparing Non-Voters and Voters in the 2016 Presidential Election

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Author(s)Medenica, Vladimir E.
Author(s)Fowler, Matthew
Date Accessioned2021-12-15T16:52:05Z
Date Available2021-12-15T16:52:05Z
Publication Date2021-09-07
DescriptionThis article was originally published in The Forum. The version of record is available at: https://doi.org/10.1515/for-2021-0013en_US
AbstractWhile much attention has been paid to understanding the drivers of support for Donald Trump, less focus has been placed on understanding the factors that led individuals to turn out and vote or stay home. This paper compares non-voters and voters in the 2016 election and explores how self-reported candidate preference prior to the election predicted turnout across three different state contexts: (1) all states, (2) closely contested states won by Trump, and (3) closely contested states won by Clinton. We find that preference for both candidates predicted turnout in the aggregate (all states) and in closely contested states won by Clinton, but only preference for Trump predicted turnout in the closely contested states won by Trump. Moreover, we find that political interest is negatively associated with preference for Clinton when examining candidate preferences among non-voters. Our analysis suggests that non-voters in the 2016 election held meaningful candidate preferences that impacted voter turnout but that state context played an important role in this relationship. This study sheds light on an understudied component of the 2016 election, the attitudes and behavior of non-voters, as well as points to the importance of incorporating contextual variation in future work on electoral behavior and voter turnout.en_US
CitationMedenica, Vladimir E., and Matthew Fowler. “Candidate Preference, State Context, and Voter Turnout: Comparing Non-Voters and Voters in the 2016 Presidential Election.” The Forum 19, no. 2 (September 7, 2021): 203–27. https://doi.org/10.1515/for-2021-0013.en_US
ISSN1540-8884
URLhttps://udspace.udel.edu/handle/19716/29543
Languageen_USen_US
PublisherThe Forumen_US
Keywordsvotingen_US
Keywordsvoter turnouten_US
Keywordselectoral politicsen_US
Keywordspolitical behavioren_US
TitleCandidate Preference, State Context, and Voter Turnout: Comparing Non-Voters and Voters in the 2016 Presidential Electionen_US
TypeArticleen_US
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