Weather drives variation in COVID-19 transmission and detection

Simple item page
Author(s)Rising, James
Author(s)Linsenmeier, Manuel
Author(s)De Menezes, Ana
Date Accessioned2023-03-27T20:39:49Z
Date Available2023-03-27T20:39:49Z
Publication Date2023-01-26
DescriptionThis article was originally published in Environmental Research: Climate. The version of record is available at: https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/acb2e3
AbstractThe debate over the influence of weather on COVID-19 epidemiological dynamics remains unsettled as multiple factors are conflated, including viral biology, transmission through social interaction, and the probability of disease detection. Here we distinguish the distinct dynamics of weather on detection and transmission with a multi-method approach combining econometric techniques with epidemiological models, including an extension of a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model, to analyse data for over 4000 geographic units throughout the year 2020. We find distinct and significant effects of temperature, thermal comfort, solar radiation, and precipitation on the growth of infections. We also find that weather affects the rates of both disease transmission and detection. When we isolate transmission effects to understand the potential for seasonal shifts, the instantaneous effects of weather are small, with R0 about 0.007 higher in winter than in summer. However, the effects of weather compound over time, so that a region with a 5 ∘C drop over three months in winter is expected to have 190% more confirmed cases at the end of that 90 days period, relative to a scenario with constant temperature. We also find that the contribution of weather produces the largest effects in high-latitude countries. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to evolve and risks becoming endemic, these seasonal dynamics may play a crucial role for health policy.
SponsorWe would like to thank Yang Liu, Susana Mourato, Sefi Roth, and participants of the session COVID-19: Earth Observations and Environmental Modeling Applications for Understanding, Quantifying, and Predicting the Seasonality (or Not) and Propagation of COVID-19 at the AGU 2020 fall meeting. M.L. acknowledges financial support by the UK's Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) with grant number 2300776. A.D.M. acknowledges financial support by the PhD Studentship programme of the London School of Economics (LSE).
CitationRising, James, Manuel Linsenmeier, and Ana De Menezes. “Weather Drives Variation in COVID-19 Transmission and Detection.” Environmental Research: Climate 2, no. 1 (2023): 011001. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/acb2e3.
ISSN2752-5295
URLhttps://udspace.udel.edu/handle/19716/32582
Languageen_US
PublisherEnvironmental Research: Climate
KeywordsCOVID-19
Keywordstemperature
Keywordsseasonal cycles
KeywordsBayesian modeling
Keywordstransmission
Keywordsdetection
TitleWeather drives variation in COVID-19 transmission and detection
TypeArticle
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
Weather drives variation in COVID-19.pdf
Size:
2.14 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Main article
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
2.22 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Download
Collections
Open Access Publications