Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits
| Author(s) | Carleton, Tamma | |
| Author(s) | Jina, Amir | |
| Author(s) | Delgado, Michael | |
| Author(s) | Greenstone, Michael | |
| Author(s) | Houser, Trevor | |
| Author(s) | Hsiang, Solomon | |
| Author(s) | Hultgren, Andrew | |
| Author(s) | Kopp, Robert E. | |
| Author(s) | McCusker, Kelly E. | |
| Author(s) | Nath, Ishan | |
| Author(s) | Rising, James | |
| Author(s) | Rode, Ashwin | |
| Author(s) | Seo, Hee Kwon | |
| Author(s) | Viaene, Arvid | |
| Author(s) | Yuan, Jiacan | |
| Author(s) | Zhang, Alice Tianbo | |
| Date Accessioned | 2022-07-27T14:39:07Z | |
| Date Available | 2022-07-27T14:39:07Z | |
| Publication Date | 2022-04-21 | |
| Description | This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in The Quarterly Journal of Economics following peer review. The version of record Tamma Carleton, Amir Jina, Michael Delgado, Michael Greenstone, Trevor Houser, Solomon Hsiang, Andrew Hultgren, Robert E Kopp, Kelly E McCusker, Ishan Nath, James Rising, Ashwin Rode, Hee Kwon Seo, Arvid Viaene, Jiacan Yuan, Alice Tianbo Zhang, Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2022;, qjac020, https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac020 is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac020. This article will be embargoed until 04/21/2024. | en_US |
| Abstract | Using 40 countries’ subnational data, we estimate age-specific mortality-temperature relationships and extrapolate them to countries without data today and into a future with climate change. We uncover a U-shaped relationship where extre6me cold and hot temperatures increase mortality rates, especially for the elderly. Critically, this relationship is flattened by higher incomes and adaptation to local climate. Using a revealed-preference approach to recover unobserved adaptation costs, we estimate that the mean global increase in mortality risk due to climate change, accounting for adaptation benefits and costs, is valued at roughly 3.2% of global GDP in 2100 under a high-emissions scenario. Notably, today’s cold locations are projected to benefit, while today’s poor and hot locations have large projected damages. Finally, our central estimates indicate that the release of an additional ton of CO2 today will cause mortality-related damages of $36.6 under a high-emissions scenario, with an interquartile range accounting for both econometric and climate uncertainty of [−$7.8, $73.0]. These empirically grounded estimates exceed the previous literature’s estimates by an order of magnitude. | en_US |
| Sponsor | This project is an output of the Climate Impact Lab, which gratefully acknowledges funding from the Energy Policy Institute of Chicago (EPIC), International Growth Centre, National Science Foundation, Sloan Foundation, Carnegie Corporation, and Tata Center for Development. Tamma Carleton acknowledges funding from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Science To Achieve Results Fellowship (no. FP91780401). We thank Trinetta Chong, Greg Dobbels, Diana Gergel, Radhika Goyal, Simon Greenhill, Hannah Hess, Dylan Hogan, Azhar Hussain, Stefan Klos, Theodor Kulczycki, Ruixue Li, Brewster Malevich, Sébastien Annan Phan, Justin Simcock, Emile Tenezakis, Jingyuan Wang, and Jong-kai Yang for invaluable research assistance during all stages of this project, and Samantha Anderson, Megan Landín, Terin Mayer, and Jack Chang for excellent project management. We thank Larry Katz, Andrei Shleifer, and five anonymous reviewers for insightful comments, as well as David Anthoff, Max Auffhammer, Olivier Deschênes, Avi Ebenstein, Nolan Miller, Wolfram Schlenker, and numerous workshop participants at University of Chicago, Stanford, Princeton, UC Berkeley, UC San Diego, UC Santa Barbara, University of Pennsylvania, University of San Francisco, University of Virginia, University of Wisconsin-Madison, University of Minnesota Twin Cities, NBER Summer Institute, LSE, PIK, Oslo University, University of British Columbia, Gothenburg University, the European Center for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics, the National Academies of Sciences, and the Econometric Society for comments, suggestions, and help with data. Full replication code is publicly available at https://github.com/ClimateImpactLab/carleton_mortality_2022 and replication data are publicly hosted at doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6416119. | en_US |
| Citation | Tamma Carleton, Amir Jina, Michael Delgado, Michael Greenstone, Trevor Houser, Solomon Hsiang, Andrew Hultgren, Robert E Kopp, Kelly E McCusker, Ishan Nath, James Rising, Ashwin Rode, Hee Kwon Seo, Arvid Viaene, Jiacan Yuan, Alice Tianbo Zhang, Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2022;, qjac020, https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac020 | en_US |
| ISSN | 1531-4650 | |
| URL | https://udspace.udel.edu/handle/19716/31155 | |
| Language | en_US | en_US |
| Publisher | The Quarterly Journal of Economics | en_US |
| Title | Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits | en_US |
| Type | Article | en_US |
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