Is the Export-Lead Growth Hypothesis Valid for Canada?

Abstract

Empirical evidence linking exports to economic growth has been mixed and inconclusive. This study re-examine the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis for Canada by testing for Granger causality from exports to national output growth using vector error correction models (VECM) and the augmented vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology developed in Toda and Yamamoto (1995). Application of recent developments in time series modeling and the inclusion of relevant variables omitted in previous studies help clarify the contradictory results from prior studies on the Canadian economy. The empirical results suggest that a long-run steady state exists among the model’s six variables and that Granger causal flow is unidirectional from real exports to real GDP.