Is the U.S. Heading for a Civil War? Scenarios for 2024-25
Date
2022-10-25
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Studies in Conflict and Terrorism
Abstract
This article applies symbolic politics theory to assess the risk of a new civil war in the U.S., finding that all of the factors making civil war likely are currently present. Narratives promoting hostility toward the other party are prominent among Republicans and Democrats alike, as are hostile predispositions and hostile feelings toward the other party. The Republican Party’s rejection of Trump’s 2020 election loss and its links to the January 6 coup attempt and to militia groups position it to organize a more violent insurrection in a scenario in which Trump is again the unsuccessful presidential nominee in 2024.
Description
This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Studies in Conflict and Terrorism on 10/25/2022, available at: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/1057610X.2022.2137892. This article will be embargoed until 04/25/2024.
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Citation
Kaufman, Stuart J. “Is the U.S. Heading for a Civil War? Scenarios for 2024-25.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism (2022): 1–29. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2022.2137892.