Detection of climate transitions and discontinuities by Hurst rescaling

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Author(s)Legates, David R.
Author(s)Outcalt, Samuel I.
Date Accessioned2022-03-07T21:00:08Z
Date Available2022-03-07T21:00:08Z
Publication Date2021-12-20
DescriptionThis is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Legates, D. R., & Outcalt, S. I. (2022). Detection of climate transitions and discontinuities by Hurst rescaling. International Journal of Climatology, 1– 20. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7502, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7502. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions. This article may not be enhanced, enriched or otherwise transformed into a derivative work, without express permission from Wiley or by statutory rights under applicable legislation. Copyright notices must not be removed, obscured or modified. The article must be linked to Wiley’s version of record on Wiley Online Library and any embedding, framing or otherwise making available the article or pages thereof by third parties from platforms, services and websites other than Wiley Online Library must be prohibited.en_US
AbstractThe method of Outcalt et al., based on work developed originally by Hurst, is re-examined to evaluate its efficacy in delineating changes in trends and identifying regime shifts in climatic-related time series. This technique is based on the concept of the normalized rescaled running sum where temporal changes in the Hurst exponent can be used to identify climatic trends from one regime to another as each regime has a characteristic distribution that differs from the statistical characteristics of the complete time series. An examination of the temporal change in the amplitude of the normalized rescaled running sum can be used as a method to identify these regime changes, which may be either real (i.e., a true climatic shift) or induced (i.e., through a change in measurement bias, station location, or other nonclimatic influence). Examples shown here focus on examining time series of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Arctic thaw depth, the Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent, treeflow data from Lees Ferry (AZ), North Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency, and central England air temperatures.en_US
CitationLegates, D. R., & Outcalt, S. I. (2022). Detection of climate transitions and discontinuities by Hurst rescaling. International Journal of Climatology, 1– 20. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7502en_US
ISSN1097-0088
URLhttps://udspace.udel.edu/handle/19716/30626
Languageen_USen_US
PublisherInternational Journal of Climatologyen_US
KeywordsArctic thaw depthen_US
Keywordscentral England air temperaturesen_US
KeywordsHurst rescalingen_US
Keywordsintegral traceen_US
Keywordsnormalized rescaled running sumen_US
KeywordsNorth Atlantic tropical cyclone frequencyen_US
KeywordsNorthern Hemisphere snow cover extenten_US
KeywordsPacific Decadal Oscillationen_US
KeywordsTreeflowen_US
TitleDetection of climate transitions and discontinuities by Hurst rescalingen_US
TypeArticleen_US
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