Community context and homicide clearance rates: estimating the effects of collective efficacy
Date
2015
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Publisher
University of Delaware
Abstract
Homicide clearance rates have fallen to a historic low, with less than two-thirds of homicides cleared by arrest. However, only a handful of macro-level studies of homicide clearance exist in the literature, and results are mixed regarding the impact of community characteristics (e.g., economic deprivation, residential stability) on clearance. Additionally, although research has established that community members are critical to homicide case outcomes, the effect of collective efficacy (i.e., social cohesion among neighborhood residents combined with their willingness to intervene) on homicide clearance rates has not been empirically tested. In an effort to fill this gap in the literature and potentially address previous inconsistencies, I combine data from the Homicides in Chicago Dataset, PHDCN, and 1990 U.S. Census to explore the direct and indirect effects of structural features, collective efficacy, and legal cynicism on homicide clearance rates in Chicago neighborhoods. Results indicate that economic deprivation, residential stability, population size, and legal cynicism all significantly decrease the likelihood of homicide clearance, while immigrant concentration and collective efficacy significantly increase the likelihood of homicide clearance. Results also indicate that collective efficacy may partially mediate the relationship between economic deprivation and homicide clearance and that legal cynicism partially mediates the relationship between structural features and homicide clearance rates. Potential implications and directions for future research are also discussed.