Browsing by Author "Rising, James"
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Item Geolocated fish spawning habitats(Scientific Data, 2024-05-22) Oremus, Kimberly L.; Rising, James; Ramesh, Nandini; Ostroski, Audrey J.Fish spawning locations are a crucial input into fisheries management and conservation plans, and many stocks are especially sensitive to the environmental conditions within these localized zones. Globally collated data on spawning locations across many species has been unavailable, hindering global stock assessments and analyses of sustainable development and global environmental change. To address this, we created a geocoded fish spawning dataset using qualitative spawning information from FishBase and Science and Conservation of Fish Aggregations (SCRFA). We cleaned and geocoded the spawning locations of 1,045 marine fish species into 2,931 regions. Each spawning region is defined by one or more polygons, and most spawning regions are associated with spawning months. The resulting dataset covers oceans globally. This dataset will be useful to scientists studying marine fish population dynamics and their interactions with the physical environment on regional to large scales.Item The social cost of carbon dioxide under climate-economy feedbacks and temperature variability(Environmental Research Letters, 2021-09-06) Kikstra, Jarmo S.; Waidelich, Paul; Rising, James; Yumashev, Dmitry; Hope, Chris; Brierley, Chris M.A key statistic describing climate change impacts is the 'social cost of carbon dioxide' (SCCO2), the projected cost to society of releasing an additional tonne of CO2. Cost-benefit integrated assessment models that estimate the SCCO2 lack robust representations of climate feedbacks, economy feedbacks, and climate extremes. We compare the PAGE-ICE model with the decade older PAGE09 and find that PAGE-ICE yields SCCO2 values about two times higher, because of its climate and economic updates. Climate feedbacks only account for a relatively minor increase compared to other updates. Extending PAGE-ICE with economy feedbacks demonstrates a manifold increase in the SCCO2 resulting from an empirically derived estimate of partially persistent economic damages. Both the economy feedbacks and other increases since PAGE09 are almost entirely due to higher damages in the Global South. Including an estimate of interannual temperature variability increases the width of the SCCO2 distribution, with particularly strong effects in the tails and a slight increase in the mean SCCO2. Our results highlight the large impacts of climate change if future adaptation does not exceed historical trends. Robust quantification of climate-economy feedbacks and climate extremes are demonstrated to be essential for estimating the SCCO2 and its uncertainty.Item Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits(The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2022-04-21) Carleton, Tamma; Jina, Amir; Delgado, Michael; Greenstone, Michael; Houser, Trevor; Hsiang, Solomon; Hultgren, Andrew; Kopp, Robert E.; McCusker, Kelly E.; Nath, Ishan; Rising, James; Rode, Ashwin; Seo, Hee Kwon; Viaene, Arvid; Yuan, Jiacan; Zhang, Alice TianboUsing 40 countries’ subnational data, we estimate age-specific mortality-temperature relationships and extrapolate them to countries without data today and into a future with climate change. We uncover a U-shaped relationship where extre6me cold and hot temperatures increase mortality rates, especially for the elderly. Critically, this relationship is flattened by higher incomes and adaptation to local climate. Using a revealed-preference approach to recover unobserved adaptation costs, we estimate that the mean global increase in mortality risk due to climate change, accounting for adaptation benefits and costs, is valued at roughly 3.2% of global GDP in 2100 under a high-emissions scenario. Notably, today’s cold locations are projected to benefit, while today’s poor and hot locations have large projected damages. Finally, our central estimates indicate that the release of an additional ton of CO2 today will cause mortality-related damages of $36.6 under a high-emissions scenario, with an interquartile range accounting for both econometric and climate uncertainty of [−$7.8, $73.0]. These empirically grounded estimates exceed the previous literature’s estimates by an order of magnitude.Item Weather drives variation in COVID-19 transmission and detection(Environmental Research: Climate, 2023-01-26) Rising, James; Linsenmeier, Manuel; De Menezes, AnaThe debate over the influence of weather on COVID-19 epidemiological dynamics remains unsettled as multiple factors are conflated, including viral biology, transmission through social interaction, and the probability of disease detection. Here we distinguish the distinct dynamics of weather on detection and transmission with a multi-method approach combining econometric techniques with epidemiological models, including an extension of a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model, to analyse data for over 4000 geographic units throughout the year 2020. We find distinct and significant effects of temperature, thermal comfort, solar radiation, and precipitation on the growth of infections. We also find that weather affects the rates of both disease transmission and detection. When we isolate transmission effects to understand the potential for seasonal shifts, the instantaneous effects of weather are small, with R0 about 0.007 higher in winter than in summer. However, the effects of weather compound over time, so that a region with a 5 ∘C drop over three months in winter is expected to have 190% more confirmed cases at the end of that 90 days period, relative to a scenario with constant temperature. We also find that the contribution of weather produces the largest effects in high-latitude countries. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to evolve and risks becoming endemic, these seasonal dynamics may play a crucial role for health policy.