Browsing by Author "Ringelman, Kevin M."
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Item Assessing Uncertainty in Coastal Marsh Core Sampling for Waterfowl Foods(Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management, 2015-06-01) Ringelman, Kevin M.; Williams, Christopher K.; Coluccy, John M.Quantifying foraging resources available to waterfowl in different habitat types is important for estimating energetic carrying capacity. To accomplish this, most studies collect soil-core samples from the marsh substrate, sieve and sort food items, and extrapolate energy values to wetland or landscape scales. This is a costly and time-intensive process; furthermore, extrapolation methods yield energy estimates with large variances relative to the mean. From both research and management perspectives, it is important to understand sources of this variation and estimate the number of soil cores needed to reduce the variance to desired levels. Using 2,341 cores collected from freshwater and salt marsh habitats at four sites along the Atlantic Coast, we examined sampling variation and biological variation among sites and habitats. When we removed extreme outliers in the data caused by large animal food items found in a small core sample, estimates of energy density decreased by an order of magnitude for most habitats. After removing outliers, we found inconsistent geographical variation among habitat types that was especially pronounced in freshwater and no evidence for within-season temporal depletion of food resources for any site or habitat. We used a Monte Carlo simulation approach to estimate the optimal number of cores (minimizing both cost and estimated variance) sampled in each habitat type. Across most contexts, a reduction in the coefficient of variation reached diminishing returns near 40 core samples. We recommend that researchers explicitly address outliers in the data and managers acknowledge the imprecision that can arise from including or excluding outliers when estimating energy density at landscape scales. Our results suggest that collecting 40–50 cores per habitat type was sufficient to reduce the variance to acceptable levels while minimizing overall sampling costs.Item Estimating Waterfowl Carrying Capacity at Local Scales: A Case Study From Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge, New Jersey(Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management, 2018-01-29) Ringelman, Kevin M.; Williams, Christopher K.; Castelli, Paul M.; Sieges, Mason L.; Longenecker, Rebecca A.; Nichols, Theodore C.; Earsom, Stephen D.The management of wintering North American waterfowl is based on the premise that the amount of foraging habitat can limit populations. To estimate carrying capacity of winter habitats, managers use bioenergetic models to quantify energy (food) availability and energy demand, and use results as planning tools to meet regional conservation objectives. Regional models provide only coarse estimates of carrying capacity because habitat area, habitat energy values, and temporal trends in population-level demand are difficult to quantify precisely at large scales. We took advantage of detailed data previously collected on wintering waterfowl at Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge and surrounding marsh, New Jersey, and created a well-constrained local model of carrying capacity. We used 1,223 core samples collected between 2006 and 2015 to estimate food availability. We used species-specific 24-h time–activity data collected between 2011 and 2013 to estimate daily energy expenditure, morphometrically corrected for site- and day-specific thermoregulatory costs. To estimate population-level energy demand, we used standardized monthly ground surveys (2005–2014) to create a migration curve, and proportionally scaled that to fit aerial survey data (2005–2014). Crucially, we also explicitly incorporated estimates of variance in all of these parameters and conducted a sensitivity analysis to diagnose the most important sources of variation in the model. Our results from an outlier-removed, a strict depletion model indicated that at estimated mean levels of supply (923 million kcal) and cumulative demand (3.4 billion kcal), refuge food resources were depleted before November. However, a constant-supply model that represented tidal replenishment of resources indicated that just enough energy was present to sustain peak winter populations. Variation in model output appeared to be driven primarily by uncertainty in population abundance during peak periods of use, emphasizing a new management focus on studying migration chronologies of waterfowl. This model allows for relative assessment of biases and uncertainties in carrying-capacity modeling, and serves as a framework identifying critical science needs to improve local and regional waterfowl management planning.Item Implications of uncertainty in true metabolizable energy estimates for estimating wintering waterfowl carrying capacities(Wildlife Society Bulletin, 2015-09-15) Livolsi, Mark C.; Ringelman, Kevin M.; Coluccy, John M.; Dibona, Matthew T.; Williams, Christopher K.Carrying capacity models for wintering waterfowl require estimates of energy availability based on food densities and true metabolizable energy (TME) of various food types. However, because TME values vary widely between studies, estimates of carrying capacity may be less precise than previously acknowledged. We explored how variation in TME values affected estimates of landscape-level energy availability for American black ducks (Anas rubripes), using 4 distinct approaches for assigning TME values to waterfowl food items collected over the winter period in 2011–2012 and 2012–2013: a “best practices” approach, which typically used average TMEs across species, a minimum and maximum reported values approaches, and a coarse-scale “order-average” approach. We found that all 4 approaches yielded significantly different estimates of energy availability across all saltmarsh habitat types. Additionally, we evaluated the potential management implications of variation in TME values by comparing energy supply on 1,223 ha of marsh in Prime Hook National Wildlife Refuge (DE, USA) using all 4 approaches for assigning TME values. We estimated carrying capacity and modeled depletion of energy on this refuge over a hypothetical wintering period. We found that even relatively small variations in TME values produced highly variable estimates of carrying capacity for the refuge. Thus, we recommend that researchers consider the inherent uncertainty in TME values of waterfowl foods, and explicitly include this variation in carrying capacity models. © 2015 The Wildlife Society.Item Subsampling Reduces Sorting Effort for Waterfowl Foods in Salt-Marsh Core Samples(Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management, 2014-07-23) Livolsi, Mark C.; Ringelman, Kevin M.; Williams, Christopher K.Waterfowl researchers often use soil core samples to estimate food availability in foraging habitats, and these estimates are needed for bioenergetic models of carrying capacity. However, core sampling is frequently a time- and resource-intensive process, and some researchers have suggested that subsampling may be a valuable way to reduce processing time. We evaluated whether 10% and 25% by mass subsampling are appropriate techniques for reducing core-sorting effort while maintaining precision for samples taken in six separate habitat types along the Delaware bayshore. We found no significant difference between biomass found in 100% sorted cores and estimated biomass obtained by 10% and 25% subsampling. We found that 10% subsampling offered the greatest time savings, reducing mean sorting times by 77% (from 13.7 hours to 3.3 hours) from 100% sorted cores. We recommend that researchers consider subsampling to reduce core-sorting effort and cost, particularly when processing large numbers of cores.Item The American Black Duck: Three Decades of Science-Based Adaptive Management(Case Studies in the Environment, 2018-12-31) Ringelman, Kevin M.; Williams, Christopher K.The American black duck (Anas rubripes) population declined by 50% between 1955 and 1985, prompting more than three decades of intensive scientific research and strategic management. Analyses of band recovery data suggest that the historical declines may have been caused in part by harvest, but even with restrictive hunting regulations implemented in the mid 1980s, populations have not recovered. Increasing competition and hybridization with mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), coupled with habitat loss and fragmentation on northern breeding grounds are hypothesized to have contributed to a lower continental black duck population. Simultaneously, there is a concern that declines in the quantity and quality of wintering habitat—coastal salt marshes of the eastern United States—may have deleterious cross-seasonal effects on black duck demographics. Black ducks have a long legacy of intensive research and management, and ongoing threats to their populations make this a well-rooted and timely case study in science-based conservation.