Preliminary Papers
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Browsing Preliminary Papers by Author "Diaz, Walter"
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Item Allocation of Radar Resources and Policy Implications: The End-User Community in Oklahoma(Disaster Research Center, 2005) Rodriguez, Havidan; Diaz, Walter; Donner, William R.; Santos, Jenniffer; Marks, DanielSocial scientists at the Disaster Research Center (DRC) at the University of Delaware, the Center for Applied Social Research (CISA) at the University of Puerto Rico-Mayagüez, and at the University of Massachusetts are conducting a research project focusing on the knowledge, perceptions, and attitudes of end-users (primarily emergency managers and representatives from the National Weather Service – NWS) in the State of Oklahoma regarding severe weather events, warnings, and the development of new radar technology. Particular attention has also been paid to the advantages, problems, and limitations of current weather technology from the emergency manager’s perspective. This research brief focuses on the end-users’ recommendations regarding the allocation of the new radar resources that are being developed by the Engineering Research Center (ERC) on the Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA), which is funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF). In-depth interviews were conducted with members (n=38) of the emergency management community and NWS meteorologists with diverse experiences in disaster mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. Based on the results from the in-depth interviews, we generated seven (7) broad categories that include the recommendations or factors that emergency managers reported should be taken into account in the allocation of radar resources, including a) nature of the hazard event, b) potential impact and outcomes of the hazard event, c) lead time, d) false alarm rates, e) population issues, f) infrastructure, and g) availability of other resources.Item Communicating Risk and Warnings: An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Research Approach(Disaster Research Center, 2004) Rodriguez, Havidan; Diaz, Walter; Aguirre, Benigno E.Forecasting weather has become a very important scientific, economic, and political endeavor. With the development of new and enhanced technology, weather forecasting skills have improved significantly in the United States and internationally (NRC, 1999 and 2003). However, weather forecasting is a probabilistic science and many uncertainties still remain (see NSF, 2002). Indeed, despite significant improvements in our ability to predict the weather in the short- and long-term, recent experiences with natural hazards show that we continue to confront important challenges regarding lead times, false alarm rates, the accuracy and reliability of the information that is being communicated, and our ability to elicit the appropriate response from the public. As lead time in issuing severe weather warnings to threatened populations increases with improvements in weather monitoring, detection, and mass communication technology, the social and organizational features of integrated warning systems become paramount as key factors in saving lives and reducing damages to property. There is a need to continue to expand our knowledge regarding how people and organizations perceive and react to weather forecasts and warnings. This knowledge must be integrated with other technical information on weather forecasts already available so as to make weather information more useful to society. This paper explores the role of technology, the media, and interdisciplinary research in the communication of warnings, risk, and disaster information. We also focus on how researchers can communicate the importance, value, and contribution of hazard and disaster research to the end-user community, including emergency management organizations and the general public. We argue that significant changes need to occur in the existing scientific paradigms in order to incorporate the needs and problems that the end-user communities confront. Further, we provide a critical analysis on the importance and potential contributions of interdisciplinary research in the disaster field. We emphasize the need to develop an integrated research model to communicate risk and warnings, which takes into account the new and emerging technology, the role of the media, and the changing socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the general population.Item Rainfall Estimates or Tornado Detection?: An Assessment Based on the Needs of Emergency Managers(Disaster Research Center, 2005) Donner, William R.; Grainger, Desiree; Rodriguez, Havidan; Diaz, Walter; Santos, JennifferThe following research brief uses data obtained from twenty six (n=26) interviews with emergency managers, National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters, and amateur radio operators (HAM) to determine whether rainfall estimation or tornado detection would more effectively address the needs of the emergency management community in Oklahoma. This study was conducted as part of a broader project on end-user integration, which intends to incorporate the needs and recommendations of end users into the design of radar technology currently under development by the Engineering Center for the Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA). In the course of our analysis, we discovered that a majority of emergency managers require tornado detection due to the specific needs of Oklahoma communities, as well as their experiences with severe weather. We identified three reasons for this decision. First, tornados are less predictable than floods. Second, mitigation strategies, such as rain gauges and retention ponds, have significantly reduced the threat of flooding in most regions. Finally, failed tornado warnings vis-a-vis flood warnings seem to pose a greater threat to professional credibility and legitimacy. Overall, these findings indicate that emergency managers consider a wide range of factors when making decisions related to severe weather. While much is revealed about the decision-making process, the reasons for which emergency managers chose tornado detection over rainfall estimation were, in some cases, based on incomplete or inaccurate information. Most strikingly, for example, is that according to epidemiological statistics, flooding appears to be a greater threat to life than tornados. Moreover, current flood mitigation practices do not address the fact that a) floods produce long-term and diffuse effects (e.g. insurance costs), and b) mitigation techniques may decrease the level of individual preparedness, putting a population at risk of flash and/or major flooding. It is the recommendation of emergency managers that radar resources should primarily be allocated to tornado detection. It should, however, be remembered that flooding may continue to constitute a major threat to these communities.