Converting energy subsidies to investments: scaling-up deep energy retrofit in residential sector of Ukraine

Abstract

After collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine inherited vast and inefficient infrastructure. Combination of historical lack of transparency, decades without reforms, chronical underinvestment and harmful cross-subsidization resulted in accumulation of energy problems, which possess significant threat to economic prosperity and national security. High energy intensity leads to excessive use of energy and heavy reliance on energy import to meet domestic demand. Energy import, in turn, results in high account balance deficit and heavy burden on the state finances. A residential sector, which accounts for one third of energy consumption and is the highest consumer of natural gas, is particularly challenging to reform. ☐ This thesis explores energy consumption of the residential sector of Ukraine. Using energy decomposition method, recent changes in energy use is analyzed. Energy intensity of space heating in the residential sector of Ukraine is compared with selected EU member states with similar climates. Energy efficiency potential is evaluated for whole residential sector in general and for multistory apartment buildings connected to the district heating in particular. Specifically, investments in thermal modernization of multistory residential buildings will result in almost 45TWh, or 3.81 Mtoe, of annual savings. Required investments for deep energy retrofit of multistory buildings is estimated as much as $19 billion in 2015 prices. Experience of energy subsidy reforms as well as lessons from energy retrofit policy from selected countries is analyzed. Policy recommendations to turn energy subsidies into investments in deep energy retrofit of residential sector of Ukraine are suggested. Regional dimension of existing energy subsidies and capital subsidies required for energy retrofit is presented.