Evaluating the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on winter precipitation in the Cascades using a mixed-physics WRF ensemble
Date
2016
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Publisher
University of Delaware
Abstract
In most of Washington and Oregon, USA, mountain snowpack stores water which will be available through spring and early summer, when water demand in the region is at its highest. Therefore, understanding the numerous factors that influence winter precipitation variability is a key component in water resource planning. This project examines the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on winter precipitation in the Pacific Northwest U.S. using the WRF-ARW regional climate model.
A significant component of this work was evaluating the many options that WRF-ARW provides for representing sub-grid scale cloud microphysical processes. Because the “best” choice of microphysics parameterization can vary depending on the application, this project also seeks to determine which option leads to the most accurate simulation of winter precipitation (when compared to observations) in the complex terrain of the Pacific Northwest. A series of test runs were performed with eight different combinations of physics parameterizations, and the results of these test runs were used to narrow the number of physics options down to three for the final runs. Mean total precipitation and coefficient of variation of the final model runs were compared against observational data. As RCMs tend to do, WRF over-predicts mean total precipitation compared to observations, but the double-moment microphysics schemes, Thompson and Morrison, over-predict to a lesser extent than the single-moment scheme. Two WRF microphysics schemes, Thompson and Lin, were more likely to have a coefficient of variation within the range of observations. Overall, the Thompson scheme produced the most accurate simulation as compared to observations.
To focus on the effects of the PDO, WRF simulations were performed for two ten-member ensembles, one for positive PDO Decembers, and one for negative PDO Decembers. WRF output of total precipitation was compared to both station and gridded observational data. During positive PDO conditions, there is a strong latitudinal signal at low elevations, while during negative PDO conditions, there is a strong latitudinal signal at high elevations. This shift in where the PDO signal is most visible is due to changes in mid-level westerly winds and upper-level circulation and temperature advection. Under positive PDO conditions, wind direction and moisture transport are the most important factors, and frequent warm, moist southwesterly winds cause a PDO signal at low elevations. Under negative PDO conditions, differences in westerly wind speed, and therefore orographic precipitation enhancement, lead to a latitudinal PDO signal at high elevations. This PDO signal is robust, appearing in both the WRF simulations and observational data, and the differences due to PDO phase exceed the differences due to choice of microphysics scheme, WRF internal variability, and observational data uncertainty.