More and Worse Disasters In The Future: The Social Factors Involved

Abstract

On the global scene, but particularly in modern societies, we are inevitable faced with more and worse disasters in the future. There will be both quantative and qualitative increases in the negative direction. This stems from two major factors inherent in the very structure of social life. For one, disaster agents and occasions will almost certainly increase as a result of basic human and group characteristics. In addition, because of certain social trends there will be changes in risks and vulnerabilities that will have unfavorable effects on impacted populations and societies. To recognize these upcoming transmutations in disasters is not to argue that nothing can be done by way of disaster planning. In fact, our view is just the opposite; any effective and efficient planning necessarily requires a clear recognition of the reality of what is very likely to occur in the 21st century.