Effect of the Chesapeake Bay on frontal & quasi-linear convective precipitation totals and tornado activity
Date
2023
Authors
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Publisher
University of Delaware
Abstract
The Chesapeake Bay region is unique geographically, in that it is a large estuarine environment separated from the ocean by a significant landmass (the Delmarva Peninsula). This unique geography leads to a distinctive climate relative to the rest of the US East Coast, with effects from both the Bay, and the Atlantic Ocean. Along with the well understood impacts of Bay breezes and the ability of the Bay to influence local temperatures, many have speculated on the impact of the Bay on convective precipitation and severe weather. This research sought to quantify the effect of the Chesapeake Bay on frontally induced and/or quasi-linear precipitation during the spring, summer, and fall utilizing level-4 radar derived precipitation data. Chesapeake Bay sea surface temperatures (SST), Temporal Synoptic Index (TSI) derived synoptic types, and manually classified atmospheric flow regimes and synoptic causes are used as the primary means of examining forcing mechanisms responsible for modification of precipitation events introduced by the Bay environment. It was found that more target events were stronger to the west of the Bay, and among possible causes that were examined, storm angle of travel, storm speed, Bay width, and instability characteristics were the most important factors. This research also examines tornado activity around the Bay, exploring a large discrepancy in reported tornadoes between the sides of the Bay to determine whether the Chesapeake impacts the likelihood of tornadic cells entering the Delmarva Peninsula. This work will assist in forecasting severe weather for the Delmarva Peninsula, and the Chesapeake Bay region as a whole, as well as examining whether a predominately inland body of water is able to impact mesoscale precipitation totals.
Description
Keywords
Boundary layer, Convection, Precipitation, Synoptics, Sea surface temperatures