Effects of landscape context on avian specialist response to increased surface temperature in protected areas

Abstract

Human development is a driver of global change and a major threat to biodiversity. Protected areas maintain and support biodiversity, but outside stressors, such as climate change and land use change, can negatively influence natural resources within protected areas. We examined the effects of land surface temperature and the surrounding landscape context on the structure and composition of the breeding bird community in national parks in the Mid-Atlantic (USA). We used avian point count surveys, conducted annually from 2007 to 2024, to estimate the composition of 16 avian guilds and estimated land surface temperature at each survey point. We defined 3 landscape context types (forested, urban, and agricultural) based on the dominant land cover surrounding each survey point. We used multivariate generalized linear models to test community-level (all guilds combined) and guild-level (individual guilds) responses to local land surface temperature and landscape context. We hypothesized a negative relationship between within-guild abundance and land surface temperature, and stronger negative relationships in specialist guilds and variation in response based on the landscape context. Landscape context influenced local land surface temperature and, therefore, avian guild responses. Points in forest-dominated landscapes averaged 2°C cooler than points in urban or agricultural landscapes. The majority of specialist guilds had an interaction with land surface temperature and landscape context. There were negative effects of high land surface temperature on the bird community. These effects differed across landscape context, with less extreme negative relationships detected at points surrounded by forest relative to points in urban or agricultural landscapes. Because increased forest cover is important to retain natural cooling and mitigate the effects of urban heat, preserving or increasing forest cover could help preserve and maintain bird community resilience in a warming climate.