Can visits to certain businesses help predict evacuation decisions in real time?

Abstract

This study aims to help understand and predict evacuation behavior by examining the relationship between evacuation decisions and visits to certain businesses using smartphone location and point of interest (POI) data collected across three hurricanes—Dorian (2019), Ida (2021), and Ian (2022)—for residents in voluntary and mandatory evacuation zones. Results from these data suggest residents visit POIs as part of preparatory activities before a hurricane impacts land. Statistical tests suggest that POI visits can be used as precursor signals for predicting evacuations in real time. Specifically, people are more likely to evacuate if they visit a gas station and are more likely to stay if they visit a grocery store, hardware store, pet store, or a pharmacy prior to landfall. Additionally, they are even less likely to leave if they visit multiple places of interest. These results provide a foundation for using smartphone location data in real time to improve predictions of behavior as a hurricane approaches.