An assessment of planning for resilience in Sussex County, Delaware

Abstract

Coastal communities face increasing hazards due to climate change. Their land use choices have a considerable impact on their ability to adapt to these risks, particularly with respect to flooding and sea level rise. ☐ This project investigates whether growth management and land use policies in Delaware’s Inland Bay communities advance resilience planning. The Inland Bay region is a uniquely appropriate site for this research. First, although Delaware is often considered a “growth management” state because of state involvement in local planning, no prior research has examined the impacts of its growth management system. Second, the Inland Bays are highly susceptible to flooding and sea level rise, such that some towns may be fully inundated by the end of the century. And third, Sussex County, where the Inland Bays are located, is one of the fastest-growing areas in the country, experiencing rapid development in the Bay region. This both increases the policy relevance of this research and creates an opportunity to explore the often-competing priorities of development and resilience. ☐ The project uses the Plan Integration for Resilience Scorecard (PIRS) methodology (Berke et al., 2015) and longitudinal content analysis. The PIRS approach is spatial, analyzing the combined impact of multiple plans on resilience in hazard zones. It facilitates the comparison of different types of plans, such as comprehensive plans, sub-area plans, and hazard mitigation plans. This assessment includes 22 plans from 13 communities. It is highly contextual, incorporating measures for physical and social vulnerability to assess how effectively plans address the areas most exposed to natural hazards. It also considers the role of Delaware’s State Strategies, a key part of its growth management program and mechanism for implementing the state’s land use priorities. ☐ As part of Delaware’s growth management and planning oversight, the state requires communities to submit annual reports on the implementation of their comprehensive plans. The PIRS assessment is followed by a longitudinal content analysis of these reports, focusing on a smaller subset of Inland Bay municipalities. This analysis contributes to a body of research that focuses on how plans are used. ☐ This study finds that while Delaware’s policy seeks to limit sprawl and development in natural areas, it does not necessarily re-direct development away from hazardous areas and, in some cases, calls for additional development in hazard areas. The analysis of local plans indicates that communities plan reactively based on physical vulnerability to the hazard. It does not find evidence that the State Strategies impact resilience planning. It also indicates that narrow-scope adaptation and hazard mitigation plans may be the most effective way to plan for resilience, rather than relying only on the comprehensive planning process. Finally, the analysis of plan documents and updates over time reinforces the findings of the PIRS analysis. Communities act on the policies set forth in their plans but are not responsive to the State Strategies.