Improving future agricultural sustainability by optimizing crop distributions in China

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Author(s)Guan, Qi
Author(s)Tang, Jing
Author(s)Davis, Kyle Frankel
Author(s)Kong, Mengxiang
Author(s)Feng, Lian
Author(s)Shi, Kun
Author(s)Schurgers, Guy
Date Accessioned2025-01-23T18:16:00Z
Date Available2025-01-23T18:16:00Z
Publication Date2025-01-07
DescriptionThis article was originally published in PNAS Nexus Published by Oxford University Press. The version of record is available at: https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae562. © The Author(s) 2025. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of National Academy of Sciences. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
AbstractImproving agricultural sustainability is a global challenge, particularly for China's high-input and low-efficiency cropping systems with environmental tradeoffs. Although national strategies have been implemented to achieve Sustainable Development Goals in agriculture, the potential contributions of crop switching as a promising solution under varying future climate change are still under-explored. Here, we optimize cropping patterns spatially with the targets of enhancing agriculture production, reducing environmental burdens, and achieving sustainable fertilization across different climate scenarios. Compared with current cropping patterns, the optimal crop distributions under different climate scenarios consistently suggest allocating the planting areas of maize and rapeseed to the other crops (rice, wheat, soybean, peanut, and potato). Such crop switching can consequently increase crop production by 14.1%, with accompanying reductions in environmental impacts (8.2% for leached nitrogen and 24.0% for irrigation water use) across three representative Shared Socio-economic Pathways from 2020 to 2100. The sustainable fertilization rates vary from 148–173 kg N ha−1 in 2030 to 213–253 kg N ha−1 in 2070, significantly smaller than the current rate (305 kg N ha−1). These outcomes highlight large potential benefits of crop switching and fertilizer management for improving China's future agricultural sustainability.
SponsorL.F. thanks the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (grant no. 4242500137). Q.G. thanks the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (grant no. 42301443). J.T. is supported by Villum Young Investigator (grant no. VIL53048), Swedish Formas (Forskningsråd för hållbar utveckling) mobility grant (no. 2016-01580), Lund University’s strategic research area MERGE, and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under Marie Sklodowska-Curie (grant no. 707187) and ERC consolidator grant (TUVOLU, grant no. 771012). J.T. is also supported by the Danish National Research Foundation within the Center for Volatile Interactions (grant no. VOLT, DNRF168).
CitationQi Guan, Jing Tang, Kyle Frankel Davis, Mengxiang Kong, Lian Feng, Kun Shi, Guy Schurgers, Improving future agricultural sustainability by optimizing crop distributions in China, PNAS Nexus, Volume 4, Issue 1, January 2025, pgae562, https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae562
ISSN2752-6542
URLhttps://udspace.udel.edu/handle/19716/35744
Languageen_US
PublisherPNAS Nexus
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Keywordscrop switching
Keywordsfertilizer management
Keywordsclimate change
Keywordsagricultural sustainability
Keywordsnational scale
Keywordszero hunger
Keywordsclimate action
Keywordsresponsible consumption and production
TitleImproving future agricultural sustainability by optimizing crop distributions in China
TypeArticle
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