Equalizing power: Ireland and the rapid transition to a sustainable energy future for Europe
Date
2020
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Publisher
University of Delaware
Abstract
This dissertation starts with the stark warning issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its 2018 report: If the world is to keep global temperatures from rising above 1.5°C it will have to cut its CO2 emissions in half by 2030 and eliminate them altogether by 2050. In light of probable insufficient action by most of the planet, Europe could take the lead in meeting this challenge by totally decarbonizing its economy before the end of 2030 thereby allowing 20 years for the rest of the world to follow. If it were to undertake this herculean task, it would need to develop a 100% renewable energy system (RES). Agricultural emissions will require different mitigation techniques and are not covered by this study. Due to the inherent variability of the most predominant renewable energy technologies, wind and solar, a successful 100% RES will have to find ways to compensate for the times when the major generating facilities on the system are not producing enough electricity to meet demand. Two broad RES archetypes are posited which could meet this need. In the first, referred to as the Domestic RES, variability is balanced within the borders of the nation state through battery storage and/or dispatchable RE generation. This path is consistent with the dominant theories of energy transition discussed in the paper’s conceptual framework and with current EU energy policy as discussed in the paper’s literature review. In the second archetype, referred to as the Integrated RES, variability is balanced by connecting different RE resources over large geographic areas via a network of high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission lines superimposed over each nation’s individual electricity grid. The theoretical underpinnings of this approach are presented in the conceptual framework as well and the policy adjustments to support it are suggested in the conclusion. The technical portion of this dissertation undertakes an engineering economic analysis of both options using Ireland as the nation state case study and utilizing actual hourly windspeed information from 2018 to determine potential RE generation and recorded electricity demand data from the same year to determine hourly mismatch between the two. As the vast majority of grid storage projects today are lithium-ion battery installations, the available cost data for this technology is used for the comparison portion of the Domestic RES. To estimate the cost of the balancing potential of a RES far from the shores of Ireland, the price of a HVDC connection to Spain is estimated. The balancing potential itself is estimated by extrapolating from the hourly carbon-free electricity generation in that country. The analysis shows that 41% of Ireland’s under-generation can be met with imports from a Spanish RES and that Spain can accept 44% of Ireland’s over-generation. The costs of meeting this variability is many orders of magnitude less than the costs of meeting the same amount of variability in the Domestic RES. Using energy system costs as a rough approximation for the construction duration of each option, this dissertation concludes that development of the Integrated RES stands a much better chance of creating a carbon-free economy for Europe in ten years than does the option of each country pursuing its own Domestic RES.
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Keywords
Energy system archetypes, Engineering economic analysis, HVDC transmission, Ireland, Offshore wind energy, Renewable energy