OPENING THE PANDORA’S BOX: THE IMPLICATIONS OF CONSENSUS AMONG KEY POLITICAL ACTORS ON CIVIL WAR RECURRENCE

Abstract

This dissertation seeks to answer the question of why civil wars recur after peace agreements are signed. Specifically, the main focus of this dissertation is to analyze the relationship between the executive branch and the other key state actors during the phase between the peace agreement signature and the peace agreement implementation. It contributes to the peacebuilding literature in several ways. Firstly, it recognizes that there is an unrecognized step between the peace agreement signature and peace agreement implementation, making the peace deal binding for the conflicting sides. This research argues that a signed peace agreement may not be valid (and thus, not binding) unless the state progresses through several steps. First and foremost, the Parliament or Cabinet is expected to ratify the signed peace agreement. Then, the High Court approves the peace agreement as constitutional. The peace agreement may also need to pass a referendum and be published in an official gazette or government website. These steps make the actors at each stage key political actors (Key Actors) in the political system. Additionally, the attitudes of the military and media are crucial for a durable peace. Thus, the consensus among these Key Actors is an essential factor in implementing peace agreements, and relatedly, in preventing the civil war recurrence. It takes us to the second contribution of this research: disaggregating the state into its main actors and tries to analyze the impact of the relationship between those actors on peace agreement implementation. This dissertation shows that the relationship and the consensus among the Key Actors have a significant impact on the peace agreement implementation, and relatedly, in preventing the recurrence of civil war. Rather than examining the state as a unitary actor or an individual, or separate independent actors, this study analyzes the state as a “complex unit”, and disaggregates the state to its key actors. So, to reach a durable peace, this research shows that both the executive branch and the peacemakers should take the attitudes of key political actors into consideration. Thirdly, related with the previous findings, this dissertation expand the concepts of the Ripe Moment and Mutually Hurting Stalemate. A durable peace can achieved only if the key state actors reach the ripe moment and agree that the peace is beneficial for their own interests. Peacemakers should also seek the ripe moment for the key state actors as a durable peace can be achieved if the conflict reaches to the Multifaceted Ripe Moment.

In the quantitative test chapter, I analyzed post-conflict peace duration for a global sample of post-conflict states from 1945-2009 with the aid of cox proportional hazards models. Using a novel index of consensus among key actors, these findings strongly support my argument of there is a relationship between the consensus among key actors and the civil war recurrence.