Three essays on social cost elements of electricity generation and storage in the Mid-Atlantic region

Abstract
Electricity generation and storage systems are experiencing dramatic shifts in the United States. Each decision underpinning these shifts involves a variety of complex trade-offs. From an economic welfare perspective, these trade-offs are described in terms of social costs and social benefits. Three essays presented in this dissertation explore aspects of social costs—and to a lesser extent social benefits—of electricity generation and storage technologies in the Mid-Atlantic region. While the social costs of mature technologies are generally well known, the social costs of emerging technologies or mature technologies in emerging environments have not been studied extensively. ☐ The first essay investigated the economics of vehicle-to-grid enabled electric school buses. This emerging storage technology was found to impose a variety of novel costs that have been frequently overlooked in the literature. Contrary to previous findings, a vehicle-to-grid enabled electric school bus was found to increase net present cost per seat relative to a conventional diesel bus. Vehicle-to-grid technology may become economically justifiable in future years contingent upon favorable technological, market and regulatory developments. ☐ A second essay investigated cost increases at a nuclear generating station from expected future salinity increases in the Delaware River and Estuary. This mature technology is projected to encounter an emerging operational environment as ambient water used for cooling increases in salinity from sea level rise and a deepened navigational channel. To estimate cost increases, a linked physical-economic model was developed to generate daily forecasts of ambient salinity under different future conditions and the resulting changes in the facility’s cooling water treatment and pumping requirements. On an equivalent annual basis (discounted at 5%), average cost increases were estimated as $0.4M per year. Methods developed here can be adapted to other estuarine facilities to estimate future cost increases under different salinity and operating regimes. ☐ The final essay investigated recreational impacts from offshore wind power projects by analyzing data from four in-person survey events. Respondents (n≈1500) were provided with simulated images of a large offshore wind project at different distances from shore and indicated if their beach enjoyment would have been made better or worse. In addition, respondents indicated whether they would have canceled their last beach trip due to the presence of the project at each distance. At policy relevant distances of 12.5 - 15 miles, mostly neutral and positive impacts to beach recreation were found. In addition, cancelation rates at these distances were generally under 10%. Trip cancelation rates varied significantly across surveys, suggesting responses may be sensitive to seemingly minor changes in survey format, wording and/or timing. ☐ These essays provide estimates and insights that can assist in identifying socially optimal electricity generation and storage systems. In addition, they illuminate ongoing uncertainties in the fields of vehicle-to-grid, salinity-induced cost increases to evaporatively cooled generating stations and visual impacts from offshore wind power.
Description
Keywords
Citation