POTENTIAL LANDWARD SALT MARSH MIGRATION AND LAND USE TURNOVER OF THE DELAWARE BAY IN RESPONSE TO SEA LEVEL RISE
Date
2024-05
Authors
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Publisher
University of Delaware
Abstract
As sea levels rise worldwide due to global climate change, vulnerable marsh
habitats respond by migrating landward over time, converting the original habitat into
salt marsh. This landward migration allows salt marsh habitats to persist through sea
level rise and continue to provide a multitude of ecosystem functions, including
nutrient cycling, carbon sequestration, and habitat for native species (Barbier et al.,
2011). Understanding where marsh migration is likely to occur along the Delaware
Bay, as well as how it will impact land use, is crucial in preparing for the widespread
effects of sea level rise (SLR) in Delaware. This study conducted an analysis of
potential marsh migration at three sites along the Delaware Bay (Augustine Wildlife
Area (AG), Bombay Hook National Wildlife Refuge (BH), and Milford Neck Wildlife
Area (MN)). Potential sea level rise scenarios of 0.61 m, 1.22 m, and 1.83 m were
simulated over 3 levels of land use constraint for each site. All study sites are expected
to experience marsh loss over the next several decades. Sites with steeper elevation
grades are expected to experience a greater magnitude of marsh loss. Existing marshes
with agricultural land surrounding them may be able to migrate onto the agricultural
land and maintain between roughly 9-50% of the present-day salt marsh area
depending on the amount of sea level rise and the slope of the surrounding land.
Changes in the magnitude and distribution of tidal salt marshes along the Delaware
Bay may impact both ecosystems and coastal communities through the loss/decrease
in quality of salt marsh ecosystem services. Understanding the potential migration