Resource substitutability path for China’s energy storage between lithium and vanadium
| Author(s) | Zhu, Yongguang | |
| Author(s) | Ye, Xing | |
| Author(s) | Ali, Saleem H. | |
| Author(s) | Dou, Shiquan | |
| Author(s) | Cheng, Jinhua | |
| Author(s) | Liu, Gang | |
| Author(s) | Xu, Deyi | |
| Date Accessioned | 2025-05-16T14:25:23Z | |
| Date Available | 2025-05-16T14:25:23Z | |
| Publication Date | 2025-05-16 | |
| Description | This article was originally published in iScience. The version of record is available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2025.112462. © 2025 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). | |
| Abstract | Highlights • L-V model reveals mutualistic LIB-VRB dynamics in China’s energy storage • Vanadium’s substitutability elasticity declines as lithium prices rise • VRBs penetrate market under low vanadium/high lithium price scenarios • Optimal path: Planning trajectory pre-2030, radial expansion post-2030 Summary The limited availability of lithium resources is often considered as potential constraints for the wide implementation of lithium-ion battery (LIB) energy storage technology. Alternative storage solutions, such as vanadium redox flow batteries (VRBs), are thus gaining traction as viable substitutes for LIB energy storage. However, how price volatility and cost affect technology substitution and thus scale and dynamics of energy storage market remains hitherto poorly characterized. Here, we construct a binary mineral resource substitution model within the energy storage sector of China, integrating energy storage costs with the prices of lithium carbonate and vanadium pentoxide. We reveal a mutualistic relationship between LIB and VRB, where the substitutability elasticity of vanadium pentoxide prices relative to lithium carbonate prices gradually decreases as prices rise. Through scenario simulations, we explore various price scenarios and strategic development paths, finding that VRBs show potential for market penetration when vanadium prices are low and lithium carbonate prices are high or moderate. The optimal transformation path is to follow the planning path until 2030 and then transition to the radial path until 2060. Graphical abstract available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2025.112462 | |
| Sponsor | This research was funded by National Science and Technology Major Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2024ZD1002002), National Natural Science Foundation of China (72204235, 72334001, 71991482, 72074197), the Major project of the National Social Science Foundation of China (21&ZD106), China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2022M722948), the project of Sichuan Mineral Resources Research Center (SCKCZY2023-YB015), and the Fundamental Research Funds for National Universities of China University of Geosciences. | |
| Citation | Zhu, Yongguang, Xing Ye, Saleem H. Ali, Shiquan Dou, Jinhua Cheng, Gang Liu, and Deyi Xu. “Resource Substitutability Path for China’s Energy Storage between Lithium and Vanadium.” iScience 28, no. 5 (May 16, 2025). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2025.112462. | |
| ISSN | 2589-0042 | |
| URL | https://udspace.udel.edu/handle/19716/36158 | |
| Language | en_US | |
| Publisher | iScience | |
| dc.rights | Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International | en |
| dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ | |
| Title | Resource substitutability path for China’s energy storage between lithium and vanadium | |
| Type | Article |
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