An investigation of metropolitan areas and tornado development: possible linkages between urban pollution and tornado touchdown points
Date
2019
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Publisher
University of Delaware
Abstract
Tornadoes are some of the most destructive forces in nature, responsible for hundreds of fatalities and billions of dollars in damage. Thunderstorm and tornado development are widely understood, especially the interaction of large-scale atmospheric ingredients responsible for producing the most severe weather. The standard model only accounts for atmospheric processes, while failing to account for ecological factors occurring at the local level. This thesis research investigates the potential impact human ecological processes within metropolitan statistical areas may have on tornado development. Specifically, this research attempts to identify linkages between urban air and heat pollution (i.e., Urban Heat Island Effect) and the occurrence of tornadoes. Using a linear regression analysis, the findings of this research show potential for the number of tornadoes to increase with increases in the size of the population (SQRTPop); if they occurred in tornado alley; with increases in the average temperature between April to September of 2010; and with increases in CO2 (Log10CO2.). The two interaction terms (AprilSeptO3 and CO2MeanTemp) that were included within the regression analysis had negative signs. Given that these interactive multiplicative effects were not included in the initial predictions, future research should clarify what they may mean. Overall, the findings are very suggestive in portraying the importance of anthropogenic effects on the occurrence of tornadoes, as predicted by Aguirre et al. (1993) as well as other researchers.