Farmer adoption of nitrogen modeling tools: perceived barriers and important factors

Abstract

Agricultural nitrogen runoff contributes around 45% of nitrogen entering the Chesapeake Bay, significantly affecting its water quality. Despite various efforts, the 2025 water quality goal for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed has not yet been achieved. In-season nitrogen modeling tools (NMTs) help farmers optimize nitrogen application, improve Nitrogen Use Efficiency, and reduce environmental nitrogen loss. However, the adoption of NMTs among U.S. farmers is low. While existing studies have explored factors influencing best management practices, nutrient management practices, and agricultural technology adoption, little is known about factors that influence farmers’ adoption decisions specifically on the use of NMT. This study examines the role of perceived important factors (e.g., economics, time, and environment) and perceived barriers (e.g., resources and information) in current and future NMT adoption decisions. A mail survey was conducted among 204 grain farmers in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. To bring more clarification on quantitative results, a semi-structured interview was conducted among 20 farmers. Survey data were analyzed using exploratory factor analysis and ordered logistic regression models, and interview data were analyzed using thematic analysis. Survey results showed that the importance farmers placed on time investments was positively correlated with current adoption and the likelihood of future adoption. Additionally, the influence of environmental awareness and compliance importance, time investment importance, belief barriers, and equipment and technology barriers on farmer adoption decisions for NMT varied by farm size. Farmers with larger cropland area were more likely to adopt NMT both currently and in the future. Farmers’ enrollment in the Conservation Reserve Program, Conservation Stewardship Program, and State Agriculture Cost-Share Program was found to influence their adoption decisions. Through qualitative analysis, we found that farmers considered NMT as a time and accuracy-efficient tool once they were initially set up, and they were willing to invest additional time if the tools proved profitable. These findings inform organizations such as the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Mid-Atlantic 4R Alliance, which promote nutrient management and NMT adoption, to emphasize the time-saving and cost-saving benefits of NMT and design programs that address adoption barriers based on farm size.