Abstract: On the global scene, but particularly in modern societies, we are inevitably faced with more and worse disasters in the future. There will be both quantitative and qualitative increases in the negative direction. This stems from two major ongoing trends—industrialization and urbanization—inherent in the very structure of modern social life. The first trend is raising the risks and vulnerabilities of impacted populations and societies. To recognize these upcoming transmutations in disasters is not to argue that nothing can be done by way of disaster planning. In fact, our view is just the opposite; a clear recognition of the reality of what is very likely to occur in the 21st Century will allow more effective and efficient disaster planning that we have had up to now.
