Future Disasters And Planning For Them. The Effects Of Current Social Change Trends

Quarantelli, E. L.
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Disaster Research Center
On the global scene, but particularly in modern societies, we are inevitably faced with more and worse disasters in the future. Irrespective of whether the agents involved be natural or technological, there will be both quantative and qualitative increases in the negative direction. This will result from two current social trends—industrialization and urbanization—inherent in the very dynamics of modern social life. The first trend almost insures that disaster agents and occasions will increase. The second trend is raising the risks and vulnerabilities of impacted populations and societies. The social changes going on will also contribute positively to disaster planning, but on balance unless a greater effort is made, it can be anticipated that future disasters will be more of a problem in the future that they have been in the past.
Future Disasters , Social Change Trends