(Energy Policy, 2022-02-16) Parkison, Sara B.; Kempton, Willett
We analyze infrastructure needed for offshore wind power targets set by U.S. state and federal policies—specifically, manufacturing, vessels, and offshore wind ports. By examining cost-competitive turbine and project sizes and infrastructure challenges, we identify marshaling ports as a key bottleneck. Through elicitation of requirements from supply chain, port, and vessel experts, we identify the necessary attributes for marshaling ports and calculate the area needed to meet policy targets. US marshaling ports are currently insufficient to meet either state or federal power targets. We calculate state commitments from state contracts and policies: in sum, 40 GW by 2040. Federal targets from the Biden Administration are 30 GW by 2030 and 110 GW by 2050. Either target yields more demand for marshaling area than is currently available or planned. The shortage of marshaling area supply has incorrectly been attributed to lack of suitable U.S. locations. Instead, we attribute it to developers having built ports to support early, smaller projects, and having located them to incentivize state power contracts rather than developing ports for long-term, large-scale, and economically-efficient use. Additional land suitable for marshaling ports exists, but it requires commitment from port authorities and port investors to develop it for this purpose.
